The Trump administration’s ceasefire negotiations with Iran, moderated by Pakistan in Islamabad, have largely broken down and hit a standstill. JD Vance spoke at a press conference that ceasefire talks with Iran had more or less collapsed due to Iran rejecting America’s hardline positions, but that Iran would instead come to regret this more than the US ever would. The Wall Street Journal has recently reported that “Trump and his advisers are looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran in addition to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break a stalemate in peace talks, according to officials and people familiar with the situation.” Trump’s existing naval blockade on Iran is exerting pressure on the country, but both the US and Iran find themselves in a precarious situation. The full-scale resumption of conflict will only further destabilize the region and decrease Trump’s popularity, yet fully drawing down the conflict would mean that little to nothing was achieved during the course of the conflict.
Furthermore, a blockade is not guaranteed to have the effect that the administration desires. The economic pressure will not necessarily correlate to capitulation from Tehran, and there is no certainty that the blockade will yield success. Nonetheless, if Trump opts to resume “limited” strikes, there is a strong possibility of that resumption of full military action spiraling far further out of control than the President currently intends. –Boris Nusinzon