Who will be victorious in this year’s crucial Presidential election?
Brazil will be holding a consequential general election in October of this year, one which will decide Brazil’s political future. The South American nation will be electing a new President and Vice President, in addition to members of the National Congress, governors, vice governors, and legislative assemblies of the various states. The Presidential election this year is heating up into a direct competition between the incumbent and political mainstay, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the son of recently convicted ex-President, Flávio Bolsonaro. El Pais reported that “The poll indicates that Lula would defeat any other candidate in the first round with 45%, followed by Bolsonaro’s son (39%), who is gradually closing the gap since his father handpicked him as a successor. The surprise comes in the projection for the second round of voting, where the poll concludes that Senator Bolsonaro would garner 46.3%, one-tenth of a point ahead of the 46.2% for the veteran leftist, who is seeking a fourth term. They both face a similar problem: extremely high disapproval ratings (48% for the president, 46% for the senator), meaning there are very few swing votes that could push either of them to victory.”
The nation is presently plagued by a lack of viable political challengers to Lula or the Bolsonaro family. After Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to over 27 years in prison for his attempted self-coup, the social liberal Lula took office in his second presidency. Lula has been seriously battered by scandal after scandal, yet Flávio has managed to consolidate his father’s support. Due to all other candidates trailing Lula and Flávio by a minimum of 20 to 30 percentage points, voters in the second round will be forced to choose between 80-year-old progressive Lula and 44-year-old far-right Bolsonaro. This sets up a choice for voters that is sure to be difficult and uncomfortable, unless Lula opts to drop out or another candidate manages to gain serious momentum. -Boris Nusinzon
